Can Europe live without Russian natural gas?

Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

The World Economy, 2023, vol. 46, issue 4, 897-905

Abstract: This paper analyses the implications of a complete halt of natural gas flows from Russia to the European Union (EU). The most challenging time horizon for the EU will be the winter of 2022/23 due to the little time available to roll out necessary measures to diversify the gas supply and develop alternatives to Russian gas. We explore supply availability and constraints as well as demand curtailment options. The challenge of refilling EU gas storage levels at the current abnormal prices for natural gas is also addressed. Finally, we consider the Russian standpoint and whether they would be able to redirect gas flows where European demand to suddenly dry up.

Date: 2023
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