Retrospective analysis of the transformation and forecast of the Dnipro river flow

V. Pichura
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V. Pichura: Kherson State Agraricultural University

Balanced Nature Using, 2017, vol. 9, issue 3, 81-89

Abstract: The retrospective analysis and forecast of the Dnipro river flow with the use of multidimensional statistics and adaptive methods of nonlinear time series analysis are presented. Abnormal manifestations were detected using the mean square deviation and wavelet analysis, and the main periods of the water regime transformation for 190 years (1818-2008) were determined. As a result of nonlinear forecasting, it is determined that with the preservation of the tendency of forming the water regime of the Dnipro River with a 90% probability, there will be a small but stable trend-cyclical reduction of the average annual drainage of 1.6 m3/s per year and will be 1120±270 m3/s to 2040

Keywords: water regime; river runoff; river Dnipro; retrospective analysis; multidimensional statistics; wavelet analysis; Holt-Winters method; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bnu:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:81-89

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