Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders

David Kalist, Daniel Lee and Stephen Spurr

The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2015, vol. 15, issue 1, 329-351

Abstract: This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.

Keywords: socioeconomic status and crime; recidivism; split-population model; duration analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2013-0188

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