Using the Error in Pre-Election Polls to Test for the Presence of Pork

McIntosh Craig () and Allen Jacob ()
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McIntosh Craig: University of California, San Diego
Allen Jacob: University of California, San Diego

The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2009, vol. 9, issue 1, 37

Abstract: Polls are used by politicians, voters, and businesspeople alike to form expectations over political outcomes. In an electoral system with 'pork' at the national level, local economic prospects will be a direct function of political support. Because every poll comes with its margin of error, we can exploit the error in sub-national polls to test for whether forward-looking investment in the economy adjusts to shocks in local political behavior. The covariance between the strength of this adjustment and local-level characteristics allows us to identify the locations in which strong 'pork' contracts exist. To illustrate the technique, we provide a theoretical foundation and an empirical exercise using data on Ugandan micro-entrepreneurs during the 2001 presidential election. We find evidence that investor behavior responds in a small but significant way to surprises in electoral support, and this responsiveness is strongest in 'core' electoral districts.

Keywords: elections; investment; pork; polls (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.2202/1935-1682.2014

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