EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Precaution, Social Distancing and Tests in a Model of Epidemic Disease

Obiols-Homs Francesc ()
Additional contact information
Obiols-Homs Francesc: Department of Economics and Economic History, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Edifici B, Cerdanyola del Valles - 08193, Barcelona, Spain

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2022, vol. 22, issue 1, 23-51

Abstract: I develop an extension of a canonical epidemiology model in which the policy in place determines the probability of transmission of an epidemic disease during economic and social interaction. I use the model to evaluate the effects of isolating symptomatic individuals, of increasing social distancing and of tests such as polymerase chain reaction – PCR – or Rapid Diagnostic Test that discriminate between currently infected agents, and its combination with a serology test like Neutralization Assay that is able to discriminate between immune and vulnerable healthy individuals, together with the role of enforcement to prevent interactions involving infected but asymptomatic agents. I find that isolating symptomatic individuals has a large effect at delaying and reducing the pick of infections. The combination of this policy with a PCR test is likely to represents only a negligible improvement in the absence of enforcement, whereas with full enforcement there is an additional delaying and reduction in the pick of infections. Social distancing alone cannot achieve similar effects without incurring in enormous output losses. I explore the combined effect of social distancing at early stages of the epidemic with a following period of tests and find that the best outcome is obtained with a light reduction of human interaction for about three months together with a subsequent test of the population over 40 days.

Keywords: Covid-19; social distancing; testing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 E65 H12 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2020-0147 (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:22:y:2022:i:1:p:23-51:n:2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm

DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2020-0147

Access Statistics for this article

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Arpad Abraham and Tiago Cavalcanti

More articles in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().

 
Page updated 2022-02-04
Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:22:y:2022:i:1:p:23-51:n:2