Does Permanent Income Determine the Vote?

Jo Lind

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, vol. 7, issue 1, 27

Abstract: The relationship between income and voting is usually studied using current income. Instead, I estimate how permanent income affects voting and to what extent voters are forward looking. A proxy for permanent income is constructed from stated expectations about one's future economic situation. Using panel data from the Norwegian Election Study I estimate the effect of stated expectations on realized future income to compute the effect of expectations. This is then linked to voting behaviour. Contrasting permanent and transitory income, the former has a large impact and the latter has little explanatory power on voting. This supports the hypothesis of forward looking voting. A high expected permanent income increase the propensity to vote Conservative.

Keywords: voting; permanent income; redistribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Does permanent income determine the vote? (2005)
Working Paper: Does permanent income determine the vote? (2004)
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DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1527

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