Economics at your fingertips  

How Britain Will React to a WTO-Based Brexit

A. Patrick Minford

The Economists' Voice, 2019, vol. 16, issue 1, 5

Abstract: The government of Boris Johnson has restarted negotiations with the EU over the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. If these fail the UK will exit without an agreed trade deal. This exit would not however be ‘lawless’, with unknown and chaotic consequences. Trade is governed in both the UK and the EU by WTO rules and these are highly prescriptive, preventing both sides from imposing border hold-ups and imposing arbitrary new standards on exporters whose products have long satisfied existing standards. Chaos produced by such state behaviour would be illegal and so is highly unlikely. Consequently such a ‘no deal’ would lead to the speediest Brexit, and avoid any UK financial contribution. It would also allow the rapid conclusion of FTAs with the US and other major trading partners, driving UK prices to world levels rapidly. Without an EU FTA tariffs would have to be imposed by both sides; their incidence would fall on EU traders who would have to match the world prices now prevailing in the UK market. Technically therefore no deal is the UK’s best option while it is damaging to the EU. However undoubtedly the UK would welcome a deal for reasons of good neighbourliness.

Keywords: Brexit; trade; World Trade Organisation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1515/ev-2019-0027

Access Statistics for this article

The Economists' Voice is currently edited by Michael Cragg, Dwight Jaffee and Joseph Stiglitz

More articles in The Economists' Voice from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().

Page updated 2023-01-12
Handle: RePEc:bpj:evoice:v:16:y:2019:i:1:p:5:n:12