Macroeconomic Productivity Effects of Artificial Intelligence

Saam Marianne ()
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Saam Marianne: 84505 ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics and University of Hamburg , Hamburg, Germany

The Economists' Voice, 2024, vol. 21, issue 2, 327-333

Abstract: Some observers expect that the current wave of new tools based on artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as the large language models, will have strong effects on labor productivity. I present definitions and classifications that help understanding AI as an economic input. I then review theoretical and empirical arguments about macroeconomic productivity effects of AI and conclude that research has so far found no indication that productivity effects of the diffusion of AI are likely to be higher than those associated with the internet boom around the year 2000. While considerable uncertainty around future effects remains, a recent review and calibration exercise by Acemoglu, D. (2024. The Simple Macroeconomics of AI. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 32487) suggests that the effects might be a lot lower.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; productivity; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1515/ev-2024-0072

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