The Profile of An Election, 2004: Outcomes and Fundamentals

William Nordhaus

The Economists' Voice, 2005, vol. 2, issue 2, 13

Abstract: In the wake of the 2004 election, Democrats are weighing their strategies and considering whether to refashion themselves after the victors. If the election is seen as a sweeping rejection of Democratic prospects and values, some have advised the Democrats to reshape their fundamental beliefs. A careful look at underlying economic and political fundamentals reveals a historically small swing toward the incumbent. Based on exit polls and historical data, the major conclusion I draw is that the election was surprisingly unfavorable to incumbent Republican President Bush. His was the smallest non-recession incumbent victory since World War I. Moreover, a look at different economic and demographic groups reveals some surprising swings.

Keywords: Presidential; election; 2004 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.2202/1553-3832.1034

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