Disability Forecasts and Future Medicare Costs
Cutler David M.,
Michael Hurd (),
Geoffrey Joyce (),
Constantijn Panis and
Additional contact information
Bhattacharya Jayanta: Stanford University and NBER
Cutler David M.: Harvard University and NBER
Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 2004, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-22
The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason. Chronic disability is much more prevalent among the elderly, and it has a more direct impact on the demand for medical care. It is also important to understand trends in disability among the young, however, particularly if these trends diverge from those among the elderly. These trends could have serious implications for future health care spending because more disability at younger ages almost certainlytranslates into more disability among tomorrows elderly, and disability is a key predictor of health care spending.Using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) and the National Health Interview Study (NHIS), we forecast that per-capita Medicare costs will decline for the next fifteen to twenty years, in accordance with recent projections of declining disability among the elderly. By 2020, however, the trend reverses. Per-capita costs begin to rise due to growth in disability among the younger elderly. Total costs may well remain relatively flat until 2010 and then begin to rise because per-capita costs will cease to decline rapidly enough to offset the influx of new elderly people. Overall, cost forecasts for the elderly that incorporate information about disability among todays younger generations yield more pessimistic scenarios than those based solely on elderly data sets, and this information should be incorporated into official Medicare forecasts.
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/fhep.2004.7.1/fhe ... .1052.xml?format=INT (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
Chapter: Disability Forecasts and Future Medicare Costs (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:fhecpo:v:7:y:2004:n:4
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
Forum for Health Economics & Policy is currently edited by Dana Goldman
More articles in Forum for Health Economics & Policy from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().