Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?

Heilemann Ullrich and Herman Stekler
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Heilemann Ullrich: Universität Leipzig,Leipzig, Germany

German Economic Review, 2013, vol. 14, issue 2, 235-253

Abstract: This study asks whether the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967-2010, by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those of the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons with these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicate that accuracy can be improved, but it will be difficult to achieve.

Keywords: Forecast evaluations; macroeconomic forecasting; accuracy limits (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2012.00569.x

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