Details about Herman O. Stekler

This author is deceased (2018-09-04).

Access statistics for papers by Herman O. Stekler.

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Working Papers

2019

1. A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2020) View citations (6) (2020)

2017

2. Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data, Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals (2018) View citations (5) (2018)
3. What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk, European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier (2018) View citations (3) (2018)

2016

4. Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread, Empirical Economics, Springer (2017) (2017)
5. Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2017) (2017)
6. Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2017) View citations (8) (2017)
7. Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
8. Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   Also in Working Papers, Towson University, Department of Economics (2016)

2014

9. EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (6)
   Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) View citations (6)
   CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2014) View citations (6)
10. HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (6)
11. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (23) (2015)

2012

12. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (20)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2012) View citations (21) (2012)
13. EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (7) (2015)
14. Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (5)
    Also in Technical Reports, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen (2003) View citations (5)

2011

15. Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (3)
16. Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (5)
17. Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (31) (2013)
18. Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (45) (2013)
19. Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2012) View citations (8) (2012)
20. Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
    See also Journal Article Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter (2012) View citations (2) (2012)
21. The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)

2010

22. Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2010) View citations (57) (2010)
23. Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

2009

24. Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2010) View citations (6) (2010)
25. Issues in Sports Forecasting
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Issues in sports forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2010) View citations (28) (2010)
26. Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (1)

2008

27. Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (2)
28. Evaluating Consensus Forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
29. Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
    See also Journal Article Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2010) (2010)
30. Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
    See also Journal Article Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2009) View citations (2) (2009)
31. What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (5)

2007

32. Sports Forecasting
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
    See also Journal Article Sports forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2010) (2010)

2003

33. Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector
    Discussion Papers, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics View citations (11)

1969

34. Economic forecasts: evaluation procedures and results
    Staff Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
35. Some problems in forecasting inventory investment
    Staff Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2020

1. A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (4), 1478-1487 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts, Working Papers (2019) View citations (3) (2019)

2018

2. Was the deflation of the depression anticipated? An inference using real-time data
   Journal of Economic Methodology, 2018, 25, (2), 117-125 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data, Working Papers (2017) (2017)
3. What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk
   European Journal of Operational Research, 2018, 266, (1), 238-246 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk, Working Papers (2017) (2017)

2017

4. Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread
   Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 183-194
   See also Working Paper Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread, Working Papers (2016) (2016)
5. Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts
   Economics Bulletin, 2017, 37, (2), 1151-1159
   See also Working Paper Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts, Working Papers (2016) (2016)
6. Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 53, (C), 1-15 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press, Working Papers (2016) View citations (7) (2016)
7. Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points
   Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2017, 237, (4), 329-341 View citations (1)

2016

8. Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 559-570 View citations (45)

2015

9. Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 157-164 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS, Working Papers (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
10. What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 45, (C), 54-62 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?, Working Papers (2014) View citations (3) (2014)

2014

11. Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts
    Economic Modelling, 2014, 38, (C), 6-11 View citations (18)

2013

12. An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts
    Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 2013, 11, (4), 251-259 View citations (5)
13. Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (4), 736-750 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates, Working Papers (2011) View citations (4) (2011)
14. Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession
    Business Economics, 2013, 48, (2), 113-120 View citations (6)
15. Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?
    German Economic Review, 2013, 14, (2), 235-253 View citations (28)
    Also in German Economic Review, 2013, 14, (2), 235-253 (2013) View citations (2)
16. Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (4), 605-621 View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence, IMF Working Papers (2011) View citations (5) (2011)

2012

17. A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts
    Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32, (3), 2332-2342 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS, Working Papers (2012) View citations (20) (2012)
18. Interpreting the Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession
    Business Economics, 2012, 47, (2), 148-154 View citations (18)
19. Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 309-314 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation, Working Papers (2011) View citations (4) (2011)
20. Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games
    Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2012, 8, (1), 10 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games, Working Papers (2011) (2011)

2011

21. DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS
    Journal of Prediction Markets, 2011, 5, (3), 64-74

2010

22. Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?
    Economics Letters, 2010, 108, (1), 28-32 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?, Working Papers (2010) View citations (55) (2010)
23. Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
    Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (18), 2289-2297 View citations (46)
24. Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 26, (3), 589-605 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game, Working Papers (2009) View citations (3) (2009)
25. Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example
    Applied Economics Letters, 2010, 17, (7), 673-676
    See also Working Paper Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example, Working Papers (2008) (2008)
26. Issues in sports forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 26, (3), 606-621 View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper Issues in Sports Forecasting, Working Papers (2009) View citations (1) (2009)
27. Sports forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 26, (3), 445-447
    See also Working Paper Sports Forecasting, Working Papers (2007) (2007)

2009

28. Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (4), 693-696
29. Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (1), 182-191 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions, Working Papers (2008) (2008)

2007

30. An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2007, 22, (1), 121-136 View citations (66)
31. Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 159-165 View citations (12)
32. Significance tests harm progress in forecasting: Comment
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 329-330 View citations (2)
33. The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (3), 405-413 View citations (18)
34. The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 237-248 View citations (28)

2006

35. Ray C. Fair, Estimating How the Economy Works, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA, USA (2004) ISBN 0674-01546-0 295 pp., $65
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 22, (2), 409-410
36. Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market
    Applied Economics, 2006, 38, (3), 279-284 View citations (12)

2005

37. Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930
    Journal of Economic Methodology, 2005, 12, (4), 517-542 View citations (22)
38. The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 21, (3), 397-409 View citations (58)

2003

39. Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (4), 735-742 View citations (4)
40. Improving our ability to predict the unusual event
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (2), 161-163 View citations (5)
41. Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (2), 257-270 View citations (40)

2002

42. Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 24, (4), 503-505 View citations (107)
43. The state of macroeconomic forecasting
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 24, (4), 435-468 View citations (138)
44. Wheat from Chaff: Meta-Analysis as Quantitative Literature Review: Comment
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2002, 16, (3), 225-226 View citations (3)

2001

45. Combining the Results of rationality Studies: What Did We know and When Did We know It?
    Indian Economic Review, 2001, 36, (1), 269-300 View citations (2)
46. Irrational Exuberance: Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2000. Hardcover, 296 pages, ISBN 0-691-05062-7, $27.95
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2001, 17, (2), 295-297
47. Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now
    Indian Economic Review, 2001, 36, (1), 137-151
48. The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation
    Applied Financial Economics, 2001, 11, (4), 403-409 View citations (5)

2000

49. An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (1), 17-38 View citations (91)
50. Book review
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (1), 137-138
51. The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation
    Economics Letters, 2000, 66, (1), 79-83 View citations (13)
52. Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations
    History of Political Economy, 2000, 32, (5), 95-116 View citations (3)

1999

53. An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, 21, (1), 179-187 View citations (1)
54. Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1999, 15, (1), 83-91 View citations (56)
55. Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1999, 15, (3), 309-323 View citations (30)

1998

56. Data revisions and forecasting
    Applied Economics, 1998, 30, (8), 1011-1016 View citations (13)
57. Sources of turning point forecast errors
    Applied Economics Letters, 1998, 5, (8), 519-521 View citations (9)

1997

58. Diagnosing unemployment: Edmond Malinvaud, (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994), pp. 156, $34.95, ISBN 0-521-44533-7
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1997, 13, (2), 299-299

1996

59. Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting
    Eastern Economic Journal, 1996, 22, (1), 47-56
60. Is there a consensus among financial forecasters?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (4), 455-464 View citations (20)

1995

61. Kiplinger's looking ahead: 70 years of forecasts from the Kiplinger Washington letter: 1993, (Kiplinger Books, Washington, DC) $29.95, ISBN 0-938721-31-3
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 11, (3), 492-493
62. Modeling fully employed economies
    Economic Modelling, 1995, 12, (2), 205-210

1994

63. Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, (eds.), 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research, studies in business cycles, vol. 28, (University of Chicago pres
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (2), 385-386
64. Dating turning points in the business cycle: Michael D. Boldin, Journal of business, 67, 97-131
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (3), 475-475
65. Introduction
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (4), 609-609

1993

66. Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (1), 117-120 View citations (10)
67. Forecasting elections: Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 1992, (CQ Press, Washington, DC), 163 pp., paperback $18.95, ISBN 0-8718 7-600-0
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (2), 274-275

1992

68. Comparative performance of U.S. econometric models: Lawrence R. Klein, (ed.), (Oxford University Press, New York, 1991) pp. 325, $45.00
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 7, (4), 539-540

1991

69. Do consensus forecasts exist?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (2), 165-170 View citations (13)
70. Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (3), 375-384 View citations (29)
71. Market and survey forecasts of the three-month treasury bill rate: R.W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein and S. Scott MacDonald, Journal of Business (1991) forthcoming
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (2), 252-253

1990

72. Evaluating Predictions of Change
    The Journal of Business, 1990, 63, (1), 99-107 View citations (60)
73. Forecasting industrial bottlenecks: An analysis of alternative approaches
    Economic Modelling, 1990, 7, (3), 263-274 View citations (2)
74. Forecasting methods for management: Spyros Makridakis and Steven C. Wheelwright, Fifth Edition (Wiley, New York, 1989), pp. 470, $52.95 (hard), $27.15, [UK pound]15.95 (soft)
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1990, 6, (4), 563-564
75. The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1990, 12, (1), 111-123 View citations (10)

1989

76. Econometrics and structural change: Lyle D. Broemeling and Hiroki Tsurumi, (Marcel Dekker, New York, 1987) pp. 266, $59.75
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (2), 289-290

1988

77. Who forecasts better?: Herman O. Stekler, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5 (1987) 155-158
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (4), 631-631 View citations (1)

1987

78. Modeling high levels of defense expenditures: A Vietnam
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987, 9, (3), 437-453 View citations (1)
79. Who Forecasts Better? [Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment]
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1987, 5, (1), 155-58 View citations (1)

1983

80. A regional forecasting model for construction activity
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1983, 13, (4), 557-577 View citations (1)

1981

81. Employment impact of public construction
    Economics Letters, 1981, 7, (3), 295-299

1980

82. Forecasts of a regional construction model: An evaluation
    Economics Letters, 1980, 6, (4), 387-392

1979

83. Data revisions in the U.S. international transactions statistics
    Economics Letters, 1979, 4, (1), 45-49
84. Forecasts of construction activity for states
    Economics Letters, 1979, 4, (2), 195-199 View citations (12)

1976

85. Economic forecasting and contracyclical stabilization policy
    Journal of Public Economics, 1976, 5, (3-4), 225-236
86. Optimal Stabilization Policies for Deterministic and Stochastic Linear Systems: Comments
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1976, 43, (1), 185-190
87. The Savings Rate as a Tool of Economic Analysis
    The Journal of Business, 1976, 49, (2), 189-93

1975

88. Why do Forecasters Underestimate?
    Economic Inquiry, 1975, 13, (3), 445-49 View citations (10)

1974

89. An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts: A Polite Reply
    American Economic Review, 1974, 64, (4), 728-29

1972

90. An Analysis of Turning Point Forecasts
    American Economic Review, 1972, 62, (4), 724-29 View citations (21)

1971

91. An Analysis of the 1968-69 Economic Forecasts
    The Journal of Business, 1971, 44, (3), 271-81 View citations (3)

1969

92. Evaluation of Econometric Inventory Forecasts
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1969, 51, (1), 77-83 View citations (1)

1968

93. An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts
    The Journal of Business, 1968, 41, 329 View citations (6)
94. Forecasting the GNP Price Deflator
    The Journal of Business, 1968, 41, 431

1967

95. The Federal Budget as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool
    The Journal of Business, 1967, 40, 280 View citations (3)

1961

96. A Simulation of the Forecasting Performance of the Diffusion Index
    The Journal of Business, 1961, 35, 196

1960

97. Dealer-Manufacturer Relationship in the Automobile Industry: Comment
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1960, 74, (2), 330-333

1959

98. Forecasting Industrial Production--Leading Series versus Autoregression
    Journal of Political Economy, 1959, 67, (4), 402 View citations (12)

Chapters

1977

1. Fuzziness in Economic Systems, Its Modeling and Control
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 2, 1977, pp 165-174 View citations (4)