HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010

Herman Stekler and Hilary Symington
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Hilary Symington: Barnard College

No 2014-005, Working Papers from The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research

Abstract: In setting monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee uses forecasts and other information to assess the current and future states of the US economy. Numerous studies have evaluated the Greenbook forecasts but did not determine why a forecast was made, what factors were considered or the uncertainty that was involved. The minutes of the FOMC provide such information. While the minutes are qualitative, using a quantitative index, we show that the FOMC saw the possibility of a recession but did not predict it. Using textual analysis, we determined which variables informed the forecasts.

Keywords: FOMC forecasts; forecast evaluation; uncertainty; Great Recession; textual analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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