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Working Papers

From The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting
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2018-006: Going with your Gut: The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game Downloads
Carl Singleton, J. James Reade and Alsdair Brown
2018-005: A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts Downloads
Jacob T. Jones, Tara M. Sinclair and Herman O. Stekler
2018-004: Forecasting the 1937-1938 Recession: Quantifying Contemporary Newspaper Forecasts Downloads
Gabriel Mathy and Christian Roatta
2018-003: Identification of a Nonseparable Model under Endogeneity using Binary Proxies for Unobserved Heterogeneity Downloads
Benjamin Williams
2018-002: Identification of the Linear Factor Model Downloads
Benjamin Williams
2018-001: French Nowcasts of the US Economy during the Great Recession: A Textual Analysis Downloads
Emma Catalfamo
2017-004: Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data Downloads
Gabriel Mathy and Herman O. Stekler
2017-003: What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk Downloads
Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal and Herman O. Stekler
2017-002: Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters Downloads
Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Gabi Waldhof
2017-001: How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt? Downloads
Neil Ericsson
2016-014: Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis Downloads
Kevin Kovacs, Bryan Boulier and Herman Stekler
2016-013: What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations? Downloads
Constantin Bürgi
2016-012: Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry Downloads
Neil Ericsson
2016-011: Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press Downloads
Gabriel Mathy and Herman Stekler
2016-010: Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling Downloads
Alexander N. Bogin, William Doerner and William D. Larson
2016-009: Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts Downloads
Jin Ho Kim and Herman Stekler
2016-008: Time-series measures of core inflation Downloads
Edward N. Gamber and Julie Smith
2016-007: Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter? Downloads
Pao-Lin Tien, Tara Sinclair and Edward N. Gamber
2016-006: Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set Downloads
Herman Stekler and Yongchen Zhao
2016-005: Liquidity effects on consumers’ imports in Trinidad and Tobago Downloads
Michael Browne
2016-004: Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread Downloads
Herman Stekler and Tianyu Ye
2016-003: COULD THE START OF THE GERMAN RECESSION 2008-2009 HAVE BEEN FORESEEN? EVIDENCE FROM REAL-TIME DATA Downloads
Ulrich Heilemann and Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker
2016-002: Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair Downloads
Alasdair Brown, Dooruj Rambaccussing, J Reade and Giambattista Rossi
2016-001: Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes Downloads
Yuxuan Huang
2015-006: A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average Downloads
Constantin Bürgi and Tara Sinclair
2015-005: Robustness of Forecast Combination in Unstable Environment: A Monte Carlo Study of Advanced Algorithms Downloads
Yongchen Zhao
2015-004: Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees Downloads
Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Christian Pierdzioch
2015-003: Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis Downloads
Neil Ericsson
2015-002: Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates Downloads
William Larson
2015-001: CAN A SUBSET OF FORECASTERS BEAT THE SIMPLE AVERAGE IN THE SPF? Downloads
Constantin Bürgi
2014-006: QUASI MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODELS FOR SHORT TIME SERIES Downloads
Robert Phillips
2014-005: HOW DID THE FOMC VIEW THE GREAT RECESSION AS IT WAS HAPPENING?: EVALUATING THE MINUTES FROM FOMC MEETINGS, 2006-2010 Downloads
Herman Stekler and Hilary Symington
2014-004: EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION Downloads
Hans Christian Müller-Dröge, Tara Sinclair and Herman Stekler
2014-003: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? Downloads
Jeff Messina, Tara Sinclair and Herman Stekler
2014-002: COMMENTS ON DOVERN, FRITSCHE, LOUNGANI AND TAMIRISA (FORTHCOMING) Downloads
Olivier Coibion
2014-001: INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL Downloads
Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani and Natalia Tamirisa
2013-006: Benchmarking time series based forecasting models for electricity balancing market prices Downloads
Gro Klaeboe, Anders Lund Eriksrud and Stein-Erik Fleten
2013-005: Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football Downloads
J Reade and Sachiko Akie
2013-004: Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests Downloads
Xuguang Sheng and Jingyun Yang
2013-003: Information Environment and The Cost of Capital Downloads
Orie Barron, Xuguang Sheng and Maya Thevenot
2013-002: Inflation Persistence: Revisited Downloads
Edward N. Gamber, Jeffrey P. Liebner and Julie Smith
2013-001: Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect future volatility? Evidence from the ECB Surveys Downloads
Tarek Atallah, Fred Joutz and Axel Pierru
2012-006: Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting Downloads
Neil Ericsson and Erica L. Reisman
2012-005: The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium? Downloads
Fakhri Hasanov
2012-004: A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Downloads
Tara Sinclair, Herman Stekler and Warren Carnow
2012-003: Modelling and Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region Downloads
Jason Jorgensen and Fred Joutz
2012-002: EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS Downloads
Tara Sinclair, Herman Stekler and Warren Carnow
2012-001: Forecasting Data Vintages Downloads
Tara Sinclair
2011-006: A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach Downloads
Yueqing Jia
2011-005: Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession Downloads
Herman Stekler and Raj Talwar
2011-004: The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession Downloads
Kathryn Lundquist and Herman Stekler
2011-003: Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games Downloads
Herman Stekler and Andrew Klein
2011-002: Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt Downloads
Andrew Martinez
2011-001: Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates Downloads
Tara Sinclair and Herman Stekler
2010-004: Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment Downloads
William Larson
2010-003: Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items Downloads
Ralph Snyder, Keith Ord and Adrian Beaumont
2010-002: Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts Downloads
Ullrich Heilemann and Herman Stekler
2010-001: Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved? Downloads
Ullrich Heilemann and Herman Stekler
2009-004: Transparency, Performance, and Agency Budgets: A Rational Expectations Modeling Approach Downloads
Rosen Valchev and Antony Davies
2009-003: Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game Downloads
Bryan Boulier, Herman Stekler, Jason Coburn and Timothy Rankins
2009-002: Issues in Sports Forecasting Downloads
Herman Stekler, David Sendor and Richard Verlander
2009-001: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? Downloads
Tara Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman Stekler
2008-010: Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts Downloads
Tara Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman Stekler
2008-009: What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts? Downloads
Herman Stekler
2008-008: An Exploration of Regression-Based Data Mining Techniques Using Super Computation Downloads
Antony Davies
2008-007: Evaluating Consensus Forecasts Downloads
Herman Stekler
2008-006: Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions Downloads
ChiUng Song, Bryan Boulier and Herman Stekler
2008-005: Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example Downloads
Herman Stekler and Kazuta Sakamoto
2008-004: Monitoring Processes with Changing Variances Downloads
Keith Ord
2008-003: Exponential smoothing and non-negative data Downloads
Muhammad Akram, Rob Hyndman and Keith Ord
2008-002: Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation Downloads
Tara Sinclair, Gamber Edward N., Herman Stekler and Reid Elizabeth
2008-001: Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation Downloads
Edward N. Gamber, Julie Smith and Matthew Weiss
2007-002: Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s? Downloads
Edward N. Gamber and Julie Smith
2007-001: Sports Forecasting Downloads
Herman Stekler
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