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Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment

David Bernstein () and Andrew Martinez ()

No 2021-006, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labor force participation and unemployment since the Second World War, and with different consequences for men and women. This paper models the U.S. labor market to help interpret the pandemic's effects. After replicating and extending Emerson's (2011) model of the labor market, we formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation rates for 1980-2019 and use it to forecast into the pandemic to understand the pandemic's labor-market consequences. Gender-specific differences were particularly large at the pandemic's outset; lower labor force participation persists.

Keywords: Labor force participation; unemployment; general-to-specific modeling; cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C52 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gen, nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-ore
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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2021-006.pdf First version, 2021 (application/pdf)

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