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Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?

Ullrich Heilemann and Herman Stekler ()
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Ullrich Heilemann: Univeristy of Leipzig

No 2010-001, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: This paper asks whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967 to 2010 by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those for the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons of these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroecono-metric model indicate that accuracy can be improved but it will be difficult to achieve.

Keywords: Forecast evaluations; macroeconomic forecasting; accuracy limits (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2010-02, Revised 2012-02
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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2010-001.pdf Second version, 2012 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved? (2003) Downloads
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