Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts

Jin Ho Kim () and Herman Stekler

No 2016-009, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: This paper examines an issue in long-run forecasting, evaluating a forecast for which the actual data are not yet available. In this case, we analyze the World Bank’s forecasts of the poverty headcount made in 2002, but the actual data for the terminal date will not be available for some time. The methodology requires one to infer a forecast for an intermediate date for which the data are available. We show that the long-rum projections were extremely accurate because they are consistent with the trends that are observed in the latest available data.

Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2016-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2016-009.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-009

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by GW Economics Department ().