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Evaluating a Long-run Forecast: The World Bank Poverty Forecasts

Jin Ho Kim () and Herman Stekler

No 2016-009, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: This paper examines an issue in long-run forecasting, evaluating a forecast for which the actual data are not yet available. In this case, we analyze the World Bank’s forecasts of the poverty headcount made in 2002, but the actual data for the terminal date will not be available for some time. The methodology requires one to infer a forecast for an intermediate date for which the data are available. We show that the long-rum projections were extremely accurate because they are consistent with the trends that are observed in the latest available data.

Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2016-09
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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2016-009.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts (2017) Downloads
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