Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games

Herman Stekler and Andrew Klein ()
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Andrew Klein: George Washington University

No 2011-003, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: This paper uses the difference in seeding ranks to predict the outcome of March Madness games. It updates the Boulier-Stekler method by predicting the outcomes by rounds. We also use the consensus rankings obtained from individuals, systems and poll. We conclude that the consensus rankings were slightly better predictors in the early rounds but had the same limitations as the seedings in the later rounds.

Keywords: Sports forecasts; March Madness; Ranking methods; Expert forecasts; Consensus forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2011-07
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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2011-003.pdf First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-003

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