Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts

Tara Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman Stekler

No 2008-010, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: This paper reconciles contradictory findings obtained from forecast evaluations: the existence of systematic errors and the failure to reject rationality in the presence of such errors. Systematic errors in one economic state may offset the opposite types of errors in the other state such that the null of rationality is not rejected. A modified test applied to the Fed forecasts shows that the forecasts were ex post biased.

Keywords: Greenbook Forecasts; forecast evaluation; systematic errors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2008-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2008-010

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