Details about Tara M. Sinclair

Access statistics for papers by Tara M. Sinclair.

Last updated 2024-06-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psi150

Working Papers

2024

1. Occupational reallocation and mismatch in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: Cross-country evidence from an online job site
   OECD Productivity Working Papers, OECD Publishing

2021

2. Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   See also Journal Article Employment reconciliation and nowcasting, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2023) (2023)
3. Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2021)
4. Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data
   OECD Productivity Working Papers, OECD Publishing View citations (9)

2020

5. Mismatch in Online Job Search
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (3)
6. Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19
   FHFA Staff Working Papers, Federal Housing Finance Agency View citations (6)
   Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2020) View citations (6)
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2020) View citations (8)
   See also Journal Article Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2022) View citations (6) (2022)
7. What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2021) View citations (3) (2021)

2019

8. A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2020) View citations (6) (2020)
9. Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)

2018

10. Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (2)
    Also in Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics (2015) View citations (3)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2016) View citations (5)
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2016) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
11. Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy
    See also Journal Article Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2019) View citations (14) (2019)

2016

12. Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (5)

2015

13. A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average, Empirical Economics, Springer (2017) View citations (9) (2017)
14. A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (18)
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2015) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article A state-level analysis of Okun's law, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier (2018) View citations (9) (2018)

2014

15. EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) View citations (6)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2014) View citations (6)
16. Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models
    Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales View citations (3)
17. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (23) (2015)

2013

18. How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2013) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2015) View citations (4) (2015)
19. Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy
    See also Journal Article Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2014) (2014)

2012

20. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (20)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2012) View citations (21) (2012)
21. Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2019) (2019)
22. EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (7) (2015)
23. Forecasting Data Vintages
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
24. The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory
    WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics
    Also in Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2001)
    See also Journal Article The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association (2003) View citations (1) (2003)

2011

25. Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (3)
26. Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (31) (2013)
27. Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2012) View citations (8) (2012)
28. Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (3)

2010

29. Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (55)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2009)
    See also Journal Article Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2010) View citations (57) (2010)
30. Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (1)

2009

31. How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2009)
32. Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy View citations (1)

2008

33. Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (2)
34. Asymmetry in the Business Model: Revisiting the Friedman Plucking Model
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy
35. Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy
    Also in MRG Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE G-7: AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS APPROACH, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2012) View citations (22) (2012)

2006

36. Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter (2006) View citations (6) (2006)

2005

37. Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics

Undated

38. Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach
    MRG Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia

Journal Articles

2023

1. Employment reconciliation and nowcasting
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023, 38, (7), 1007-1017
   See also Working Paper Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting, Working Papers (2021) (2021)
2. Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries
   AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023, 113, 604-08 View citations (2)

2022

3. Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, 38, (2), 635-647 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19, FHFA Staff Working Papers (2020) View citations (6) (2020)

2021

4. Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?
   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021, 83, (3), 686-712 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?, Working Papers (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
5. What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?
   Applied Economics Letters, 2021, 28, (1), 49-53 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?, Working Papers (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2020

6. A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (4), 1478-1487 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts, Working Papers (2019) View citations (3) (2019)

2019

7. Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35, (3), 1108-1117
   See also Working Paper Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions, Working Papers (2012) View citations (13) (2012)
8. Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach
   Economics Letters, 2019, 181, (C), 51-53 View citations (14)
   See also Working Paper Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach, Working Papers (2018) (2018)

2018

9. A state-level analysis of Okun's law
   Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2018, 68, (C), 239-248 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law, Working Papers (2015) View citations (2) (2015)

2017

10. A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average
    Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 101-115 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average, Working Papers (2015) View citations (1) (2015)
11. TESTING STATIONARITY WITH UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017, 21, (1), 160-182 View citations (2)

2015

12. Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 157-164 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS, Working Papers (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
13. HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (4), 791-815 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?, CAMA Working Papers (2013) (2013)
14. What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 45, (C), 54-62 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?, Working Papers (2014) View citations (3) (2014)

2014

15. Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia
    Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34, (3), 1864-1874
    See also Working Paper Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia, Working Papers (2013) (2013)
16. The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession
    Challenge, 2014, 57, (6), 34-45 View citations (4)

2013

17. Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (4), 736-750 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates, Working Papers (2011) View citations (4) (2011)

2012

18. A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts
    Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32, (3), 2332-2342 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS, Working Papers (2012) View citations (20) (2012)
19. Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 309-314 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation, Working Papers (2011) View citations (4) (2011)
20. OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE G-7: AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS APPROACH
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2012, 16, (3), 396-422 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach, Working Papers (2008) (2008)

2010

21. Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?
    Economics Letters, 2010, 108, (1), 28-32 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?, Working Papers (2010) View citations (55) (2010)
22. Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
    Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (18), 2289-2297 View citations (46)

2009

23. Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2009, 14, (1), 31 View citations (10)
24. Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (4), 693-696
25. The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (2‐3), 529-542 View citations (19)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (2-3), 529-542 (2009) View citations (79)

2006

26. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006, 6, (1), 42 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage, Working Papers (2006) View citations (5) (2006)

2003

27. The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2003, 35, (Supplement), 6 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory, WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS (2012) (2012)