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Details about Tara M. Sinclair

Homepage:https://sites.google.com/site/taramsinclair/
Workplace:Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)
Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP), Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)
Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)
Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)
H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC)
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, (more information at EDIRC)
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) (Halle Institute for Economic Research), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Tara M. Sinclair.

Last updated 2022-02-17. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psi150


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Working Papers

2021

  1. Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads
  2. Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads
    Also in CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2021) Downloads
  3. Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data
    OECD Productivity Working Papers, OECD Publishing Downloads

2020

  1. Mismatch in Online Job Search
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19
    FHFA Staff Working Papers, Federal Housing Finance Agency Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2020) Downloads View citations (3)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2020) Downloads View citations (3)
  3. What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics Letters (2021)

2019

  1. A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2020)
  2. Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (1)

2018

  1. Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2016) Downloads View citations (4)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2016) Downloads View citations (2)
    Wesleyan Economics Working Papers, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics (2015) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2021)
  2. Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2019)

2016

  1. Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (4)

2015

  1. A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2017)
  2. A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) Downloads View citations (18)
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2015) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics (2018)

2014

  1. EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) Downloads View citations (5)
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University (2014) Downloads View citations (5)
  2. Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models
    Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales Downloads View citations (2)
  3. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2014) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2015)

2013

  1. How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2013) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2015)
  2. Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2014)

2012

  1. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (18)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012) Downloads View citations (17)

    See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2012)
  2. Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2019)
  3. EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2012) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2015)
  4. Forecasting Data Vintages
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads
  5. The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory
    WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics Downloads
    Also in Econometrics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2001) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics (2003)

2011

  1. Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
  3. Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2012)
  4. Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (49)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2009) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2010)
  2. Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (1)

2009

  1. How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy (2009) Downloads
  2. Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads View citations (1)

2008

  1. Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Asymmetry in the Business Model: Revisiting the Friedman Plucking Model
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads
  3. Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy Downloads
    Also in MRG Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia Downloads View citations (17)

    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2012)

2006

  1. Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2006)

2005

  1. Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics Downloads

Undated

  1. Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach
    MRG Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia Downloads

Journal Articles

2021

  1. Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021, 83, (3), 686-712 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2018)
  2. What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?
    Applied Economics Letters, 2021, 28, (1), 49-53 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2020)

2020

  1. A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (4), 1478-1487 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2019)

2019

  1. Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35, (3), 1108-1117 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  2. Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach
    Economics Letters, 2019, 181, (C), 51-53 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2018)

2018

  1. A state-level analysis of Okun's law
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2018, 68, (C), 239-248 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2015)

2017

  1. A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average
    Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 101-115 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  2. TESTING STATIONARITY WITH UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017, 21, (1), 160-182 Downloads View citations (1)

2015

  1. Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 157-164 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  2. HOW WELL DOES “CORE” INFLATION CAPTURE PERMANENT PRICE CHANGES?
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (4), 791-815 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  3. What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 45, (C), 54-62 Downloads View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2014

  1. Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia
    Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34, (3), 1864-1874 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  2. The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession
    Challenge, 2014, 57, (6), 34-45 Downloads View citations (1)

2013

  1. Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (4), 736-750 Downloads View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2012

  1. A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts
    Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32, (3), 2332-2342 Downloads View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
  2. Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 309-314 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  3. OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE G-7: AN UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS APPROACH
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2012, 16, (3), 396-422 Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2010

  1. Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?
    Economics Letters, 2010, 108, (1), 28-32 Downloads View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
  2. Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
    Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (18), 2289-2297 Downloads View citations (44)

2009

  1. Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2009, 14, (1), 1-31 Downloads View citations (10)
  2. Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (4), 693-696 Downloads
  3. The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (2‐3), 529-542 Downloads View citations (10)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009, 41, (2-3), 529-542 (2009) View citations (66)

2006

  1. Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2006, 6, (1), 1-42 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2003

  1. The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2003, 35, (Supplement), 6 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
 
Page updated 2022-05-23