Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

Tara Sinclair, Fred Joutz and Herman Stekler

Economics Letters, 2010, vol. 108, issue 1, 28-32

Abstract: We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

Keywords: Forecast; evaluation; Federal; Reserve; Systematic; errors; Recessions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (60)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (2010)
Working Paper: Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:28-32

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