 Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisionsInternational Journal of Forecasting, 2019, vol. 35, issue 3, 1108-1117 Abstract: The research examining macroeconomic data for developed economies suggests that an understanding of the nature of data revisions is important both for the production of accurate macroeconomic forecasts and for forecast evaluation. This paper focuses on Chinese data, for which there has been substantial debate about data quality for some time. The key finding in this paper is that, while it is true that the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions are not well-behaved, they are not very different from similarly-timed U.S. macroeconomic data revisions. The positive bias in Chinese real GDP revisions is a result of the fast-growing service sector, which is notably hard to measure in real time. A better understanding of the revisions process is particularly helpful for studies of the forecast errors from surveys of forecasters, where the choice of the vintage for outcomes may have an impact on the estimated forecast errors. Keywords: China; Real-time data; Data revisions; Forecasting; Real GDP; Real GNP (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:1108-1117 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.010 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by R. J. Hyndman More articles in International Journal of Forecasting from Elsevier |
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