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The Forecasting Performance of Business Economists During the Great Recession

Kathryn Lundquist and Herman Stekler
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Kathryn Lundquist: George Washington University

No 2011-004, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book. We conclude that both sets of data are similar and that business economists are responsive to information about the economy and adjust their predictions quickly.

Keywords: Business forecasts; Great Recession; Beige Book; Payroll Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2011-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-004

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