Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game

Bryan Boulier, Herman Stekler, Jason Coburn and Timothy Rankins
Additional contact information
Jason Coburn: Department of Economics The George Washington University
Timothy Rankins: Department of Economics The George Washington University

No 2009-003, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.

Keywords: sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2009-07
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2009-003.pdf First version, 2009 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game (2010)
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