Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010

Herman Stekler and Hilary Symington

International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, vol. 32, issue 2, 559-570

Abstract: We present a methodology for evaluating and interpreting qualitative forecasts. The minutes of the FOMC meetings are used as a case study. This permits us to observe the forecasting process and determine the information that was used in generating the qualitative forecasts. Our results show that the FOMC examined an extensive amount of GDP and sectoral data and the indicators that usually foreshadow economic developments. Nevertheless, the FOMC did not predict the Great Recession in advance or recognize it quickly.

Keywords: Qualitative forecasting; Textual analysis; FOMC minutes; Greenbook forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (47)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:2:p:559-570

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.003

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