Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

Herman Stekler and Raj M Talwar

Business Economics, 2013, vol. 48, issue 2, 113-120

Abstract: We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.

Date: 2013
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