Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts
Ullrich Heilemann and
Herman Stekler ()
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Ullrich Heilemann: Univeristy of Leipzig
No 2010-002, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting
Over the past 50 or so years, I have been concerned with the quality of economic forecasts and have written both about the procedures for evaluating these predictions and the results that were obtained from these evaluations. In this paper I provide some perspectives on the issues involved in judging the quality of these forecasts. These include the reasons for evaluating forecasts, the questions that have been asked in these evaluations, the statistical tools that have been used, and the generally accepted results. (I do also present some new material that has not yet been published.) I do this in two parts: first focusing on short-run GDP and inflation predictions and then turning to labor market forecasts.
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