An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts

Herman Stekler and Huixia Zhang

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 2013, vol. 11, issue 4, 251-259

Abstract: This paper analyses the real GDP growth and inflation forecasts prepared by the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the private forecasters between 1999 and 2010. The empirical results show that the long-term growth forecasts were inferior to a naïve model and were biased. The average of a number of short-term private forecasts dominated those made by the international organisations.

Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:11:y:2013:i:4:p:251-259

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DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2013.838387

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