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Patent Valuation with Forecasts of Forward Citations

Falk Nathan and Kenneth Train ()
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Falk Nathan: Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, CA, USA

Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, 2017, vol. 12, issue 1, 101-121

Abstract: Patents without established market values (e. g., no negotiated royalty rates) are often valued by comparing the number of citations the patent has received to the numbers received by other patents whose market values are established. For recently-issued patents, which have not had time to accumulate citations, this procedure can be noisy or even inapplicable. The current paper generalizes this valuation method to incorporate patent characteristics that relate to the number of citations the patent is expected to obtain in the future. We estimate statistical models in which the explanatory variables are observable characteristics of the patent at a given time, and the dependent variable is the number of citations that the patent receives after that date. Using several examples, we demonstrate a procedure for patent valuation that incorporates the statistical results, such that the valuation reflects the number of citations the patent has already received as well as the number it is expected, based on its characteristics, to receive in the future.

Keywords: patent; evaluation; citations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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