Abrupt Changes of Global Oil Price

Chai Jian (), Wang Shubin () and Xiao Hao ()
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Chai Jian: International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an710062, China
Wang Shubin: School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an710049, China
Xiao Hao: Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100190, China

Journal of Systems Science and Information, 2013, vol. 1, issue 1, 38-59

Abstract: Aiming to shed light on the predominant variations or events that lead to the abrupt change of oil price that affect the Chinese macro economy growth, this paper performs product partition model to identify and analyze world historic abrupt change of oil price and related variations as well as the identification of the structural change point of crude oil market equilibrium structure during the investigation stage using a MSBVAR model. We found out that abrupt change of oil price occurred time and again from 1991 to 2011. Yet the change of equilibrium structure of oil market emerged only once.

Keywords: oil price fluctuation; PPM; MSBVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bpj:jossai:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:38-59:n:3

DOI: 10.1515/JSSI-2013-0038

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