Declaration guidelines in test cricket

Perera Harsha, Gill Paramjit S. and Swartz Tim B. ()
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Perera Harsha: PhD candidate, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
Gill Paramjit S.: Associate Professor, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 3333 University Way, Kelowna BC, Canada V1V1V7
Swartz Tim B.: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 1, 15-26

Abstract: This paper considers the decision problem of when to declare during the third innings of a test cricket match. There are various factors that affect the decision of the declaring team including the target score, the number of overs remaining, the relative desire to win versus draw, and the scoring characteristics of the particular match. Decision rules are developed and these are assessed against historical matches. We observe that there are discrepancies between the optimal time to declare and what takes place in practice.

Keywords: cricket; decision rules; Gibbs sampling; parameter estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0118

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