An Oracle method to predict NFL games

Balreira Eduardo Cabral (), Miceli Brian K. and Tegtmeyer Thomas
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Balreira Eduardo Cabral: Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA
Miceli Brian K.: Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA
Tegtmeyer Thomas: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Truman State University, Kirksville, MO, USA

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 2, 183-196

Abstract: Multiple models are discussed for ranking teams in a league and introduce a new model called the Oracle method. This is a Markovovian method that can be customized to incorporate multiple team traits into its ranking. Using a foresight prediction of NFL game outcomes for the 2002–2013 seasons, it is shown that the Oracle method correctly picked 64.1% of the games under consideration, which is higher than any of the methods compared, including ESPN Power Rankings, Massey, Colley, and PageRank.

Keywords: foresight predictions; NFL; oracle; PageRank; rankings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0063

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