Evaluating the ability of goalkeepers in English Premier League football

Gelade Garry ()
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Gelade Garry: Business Analytic Ltd, 1, Circus Lodge, Circus Road, St Johns Wood, London

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 2, 279-286

Abstract: This paper examines the performance of goalkeepers in the English Premier League. A commonly used metric to assess goalkeeper ability is the saves-to-shots ratio. It is shown that goalkeepers playing in weak teams have to defend against on-target shots that have a relatively high probability of scoring as compared to their counterparts in higher-performing teams. This tends to produce a downwards bias in the save-to-shots ratio of goalkeepers in weak teams, an effect which may lead to their ability being underestimated. A logistic regression model is used to adjust goalkeepers’ saves-to-shots ratios for differences in save difficulty. The adjusted ratio is more stable across seasons, suggesting that it is a more reliable estimate of true goalkeeper ability than the unadjusted ratio.

Keywords: football; goalkeeper; performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2014-0004

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