How the West will be won: using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the effects of NHL realignment

Pettigrew Stephen ()
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Pettigrew Stephen: Harvard University – Department of Government, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 3, 345-355

Abstract: The NHL has realigned its conferences and divisions, and starting with the 2013–2014 season the Eastern Conference features 16 teams and the Western Conference features 14. Yet because there are eight playoff spots available in both conferences, teams in the West have a 57% probability of making the playoffs, compared to just 50% for teams in the East. As a result we should expect that, on average, the last team to make the playoffs in the West will have a worse record than the last playoff team in the East. We call the difference in points earned by the 8th seed in each conference the “conference gap.” The purpose of this paper is to estimate the expected size of the conference gap under the new alignment. Using tens of thousands of simulated seasons, we demonstrate that the conference gap will be, on average, 2.74 points, meaning that Eastern Conference teams hoping to make the playoffs will have to win 1–2 games more than Western Conference playoff-hopefuls. We also show the 9th place team in the Eastern Conference has a better record than the 8th place Western team twice as often as the 9th best Western team has a better record than the East’s 8th best. Our findings inform questions about competitive balance and equity in the NHL.

Keywords: competitive balance; conference gap; conference realignment; Monte Carlo simulation; NHL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0125

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