Modeling and prediction of ice hockey match results

Marek Patrice (), Šedivá Blanka and Ťoupal Tomáš
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Marek Patrice: University of West Bohemia-European Centre of Excellence NTIS – New Technologies for Information Society, Plzen, Czech Republic
Šedivá Blanka: University of West Bohemia-Department of Mathematics, Plzen, Czech Republic
Ťoupal Tomáš: University of West Bohemia-European Centre of Excellence NTIS – New Technologies for Information Society, Plzen, Czech Republic

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 3, 357-365

Abstract: Modeling and prediction of ice hockey match results are not as widely examined areas as modeling and prediction of association football match results. It is assumed that match results in football and ice hockey can be modeled by the bivariate Poisson distribution or by some modification of this distribution. The aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of using models derived for football match results also for ice hockey match results and to propose some modifications of these models. A new model based on alternative definition of the bivariate Poisson distribution is presented. The models are tested on historical data from the highest-level ice hockey league in the Czech Republic between the years 1999 and 2012.

Keywords: diagonal inflated models; estimation; ice hockey; match results; poisson distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0129

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