Scoring rules, and the role of chance: Analysis of the 2008 World Fly Fishing Championships

Yee Thomas W. ()
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Yee Thomas W.: Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland Mail Centre, Auckland 1142, New Zealand

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2014, vol. 10, issue 4, 397-409

Abstract: We analyze the 2008 World Fly Fishing Championships data to examine two issues: (I) changes to scoring rules are proposed so that catching bigger fish is no longer a disadvantage; and (II) the relative role of chance versus competitor skill in determining the competition outcomes is investigated. For (I), a new quadratic polynomial formula for the number of points awarded for a fish of a certain length meant that the competitor who caught the biggest fish in one of the rivers was no longer disadvantaged, during the 20-min period it took to land the fish, compared to those anglers who caught many small fish. For (II), it was found that an angler A, who is actually better than angler B, has an approximate probability of 8.5% of having, overall, a worse score than angler B. By increasing the number of fishing sessions from five to seven, the probability of misclassification drops to about 7%. Other topics, such as the advantages of the proposed formula and the various fishing strategies, are also discussed.

Keywords: fishing competition; fresh water fly fishing; new scoring system; quantifying luck; random-effects models; sporting strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0124

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