Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games

Buttrey Samuel E. ()
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Buttrey Samuel E.: Naval Postgraduate School – Operations Research, Code OR/Sb Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USA

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2016, vol. 12, issue 2, 87-98

Abstract: This article describes a method for predicting the outcome of National Hockey League (NHL) games. We combine a model for goal scoring and yielding, and one for penalty commission, in a Markov-type computation and a simulation model that produce predicted probabilities of victory for each team. Where these differ substantially from the market probabilities, we make “bets” according to a simple strategy. Our return on investment is both positive and statistically significant.

Keywords: money line; NHL; scoring rates; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0003

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