Winning and losing streaks in the National Hockey League: are teams experiencing momentum or are games a sequence of random events?

Steeger Gregory M. (), Dulin Johnathon L. () and Gonzalez Gerardo O. ()
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Steeger Gregory M.: Department of Management, United States Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, USAF Academy, Colorado, USA
Dulin Johnathon L.: Department of Management, United States Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, USAF Academy, Colorado, USA
Gonzalez Gerardo O.: Department of Management, United States Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, USAF Academy, Colorado, USA

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2021, vol. 17, issue 3, 155-170

Abstract: The Saint Louis Blues were hot at the end of the 2018–2019 National Hockey League season, winning eleven games in a row in January and February, and eight of their last ten. They parlayed this momentum to their first Stanley Cup Championship in franchise history. Or did they? Did the series of wins at the end of the season give the Blues the momentum needed to reach the pinnacle of the sport on June 12th, or was the Blues’ path to victory the confluence of a series of random events that fell in their favor? In this paper we apply entropy as an unbiased measure to further refute the idea of momentum in sports. We show that game outcomes are not dependent on previous games’ outcomes and conclude that the theory of momentum, across the season, is a fallacy that should not affect behavior.

Keywords: entropy; gambler’s fallacy; hot hand fallacy; runs test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0077

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