European football player valuation: integrating financial models and network theory

Cohen Albert () and Risk Jimmy ()
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Cohen Albert: Department of Mathematics, Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Risk Jimmy: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Cal Poly Pomona, Pomona CA 91676, USA

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2025, vol. 21, issue 1, 3-22

Abstract: This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a “passing matrix” to encapsulate player interactions on the field, utilizing centrality measures to quantify individual influence. Unlike traditional approaches, such as regressing on past performance-salary data, this model focuses on in-game performance as a player’s contributions evolve over time. Consequently, our model provides a dynamic and individualized framework for ascertaining a player’s fair market value. The methodology is empirically validated through a case study in European football, employing real-world match and financial data. This cross-disciplinary mechanism for player valuation adapts the effect of connecting pay with performance, first seen in Scully ((1974). Pay and performance in major league baseball. Am. Econ. Rev. 64: 915–930), to include in-game contributions as well as expected present valuation of stochastic variables.

Keywords: soccer analytics; player valuation; financial mathematics; network theory; stochastic processes; sports economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2024-0006

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