An Improved LRMC Method for NCAA Basketball Prediction

Brown Mark and Sokol Joel
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Brown Mark: City College, City University of New York
Sokol Joel: Georgia Institute of Technology

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2010, vol. 6, issue 3, 23

Abstract: The LRMC method for predicting NCAA Tournament results from regular-season game outcomes is a two-part process consisting of a logistic regression model to estimate head-to-head differences in team strength, followed by a Markov chain model to combine those differences into an overall ranking. We consider replacing each of the two parts of LRMC with alternative models, empirical Bayes and ordinary least squares, that attempt to accomplish the same goal. Computational results show that replacing the logistic regression with either of two empirical Bayes models yields a statistically-significant improvement when the probabilities are jointly conditioned.

Keywords: LRMC; logistic regression; Markov chain; empirical Bayes; college basketball; NCAA basketball (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1202

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