A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions

Myers Bret R.
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Myers Bret R.: Villanova University

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2012, vol. 8, issue 1, 24

Abstract: Managers in soccer face a critical in-game decision concerning player substitutions. While past research has investigated the overall effect of various strategy changes during the course of a match, no studies have focused solely on the crucial element of timing. This paper uses the data mining technique of decision trees to develop a decision rule to guide managers on when to make each of their three substitutes in a match. The proposed decision rule demonstrates between 38% and 47% effectiveness when followed versus 17% and 24% effectiveness when not followed based on over 1200 observations collected from some of the world’s top professional leagues and competitions.

Keywords: analytics; data mining; soccer; substitutions; football (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1349

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