Odd odds: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw

Klößner Stefan () and Becker Martin
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Klößner Stefan: Statistics and Econometrics, Saarland University, Campus C3 1, 66123 Saarbrücken, Germany
Becker Martin: Statistics and Econometrics, Saarland University, Campus C3 1, 66123 Saarbrücken, Germany

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2013, vol. 9, issue 3, 249-270

Abstract: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is characterized by restrictions that prevent teams from the same preliminary group and the same nations from matches against each other. Together with the draw procedure currently employed by UEFA, this leads to odd probabilities: in 2012/2013, there were more outcomes of the draw with German Schalke 04 facing Ukrainian Shakhtar Donetsk than there were results where they were matched with Galatasaray Istanbul. In contrast, the probability of Schalke being drawn against Galatasaray exceeded that of playing Shakhtar. We show that this strange effect is due to the group restriction and the mechanism used by UEFA for the draw. Additionally, we provide procedures with which UEFA could produce adequate probabilities for the draw.

Keywords: UEFA Champions League; draw procedure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0016

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