A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq

Blank Larry (), Enomoto Carl E. (), Gegax Douglas (), McGuckin Thomas () and Simmons Cade ()
Additional contact information
Blank Larry: New Mexico State University
Enomoto Carl E.: New Mexico State University
Gegax Douglas: New Mexico State University
McGuckin Thomas: New Mexico State University
Simmons Cade: New Mexico State University

Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2008, vol. 14, issue 2, 28

Abstract: This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system has four possible outcomes or cases: (1) The U.S.-led coalition increases in size and the number of attacks by the insurgents increases. (2) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of attacks by insurgents decreases. (3) The size of the U.S.-led coalition increases and the number of insurgent attacks decreases. (4) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of insurgent attacks increases. Which case is relevant depends on the recruitment rates of the U.S.-led coalition and insurgents as well as the combat effectiveness of both sides. Policy implications are provided.

Keywords: dynamic; model; insurgency; Iraq (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.2202/1554-8597.1120

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