A Note on a Methodological Issue Pertaining to the Empirical Specification of the Probability of Crisis Initiation

Carlson Lisa J. and Dacey Raymond ()
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Carlson Lisa J.: Department of Political Science, University of Idaho, ID, USA
Dacey Raymond: College of Business and Economics, University of Idaho, ID, USA

Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2016, vol. 22, issue 1, 97-104

Abstract: This note examines a methodological issue pertaining to the empirical specification of the probability of crisis initiation. We show that the empirical specification of the probability of crisis initiation encounters an insurmountable methodological problem, and, by example, that the problem leads empirical researchers to incorrect conclusions regarding the relationship between regime type and crisis initiation, in particular.

Keywords: probability of crisis initiation; model probabilities; empirical probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1515/peps-2015-0039

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