Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change

Gerling Lena ()
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Gerling Lena: University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics, Scharnhorststrasse 100, 48151 Münster, Germany, Phone: +49 251 24304

Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2017, vol. 23, issue 4, 8

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts and subsequent regime change in a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent, especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d’état in autocratic regimes. Yet, it is less clear how elites respond to protests in terms of post-coup institutional change and democratization. To account for potential endogeneity of protests and coups, variation in rainfall is used as an instrument for urban protests. The results show that rainfall-related urban protests raise the likelihood that a coup is staged, but have no effect on subsequent democratization.

Keywords: Coup d’état; public protest; regime change; autocracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C26 D74 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1515/peps-2017-0033

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