Identifying Municipal Risk Factors for Leftist Guerrilla Violence in Colombia

Holmes Jennifer S. (), Mendizabal Agustin Palao, Saucedo De La Fuente David, Mets Kristjan, Cárdenas Alvaro, Armenteras Dolors and Dávalos Liliana M.
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Holmes Jennifer S.: University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA
Mendizabal Agustin Palao: University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA
Saucedo De La Fuente David: University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA
Mets Kristjan: Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
Cárdenas Alvaro: University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA
Armenteras Dolors: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
Dávalos Liliana M.: Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA

Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2018, vol. 24, issue 2, 23

Abstract: This study examines determinants of leftist violence at the municipal level in Colombia from 2000 through 2010. A multilevel GLMM model with a negative binomial distribution is used to take advantage of the information available at the municipal and department level. Surprisingly, inequality was not a significant covariate of violence, and agricultural GDP tended to reduce, instead of increase, guerrilla violence. The main risk factors identified include physical characteristics such as rugged topography and prior violence, but also factors that are candidates for policy action, such as unemployment, incorporation of the poor into public services, repression, and the energy and mining sector. These findings suggest interventions to decrease risks of guerrilla violence beyond merely strengthening the state. While repression tends to escalate violence, targeted policies to provide health benefits to those currently underserved, and securing mining and oil operations can effectively reduce the risk of violence.

Keywords: Colombia; political violence; guerrilla violence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1515/peps-2017-0009

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