Journal of Prediction Markets

2007 - 2015

Current editor(s): Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School

From University of Buckingham Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dominic Cortis, University of Malta ().

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Volume 5, issue 3, 2011

COMPARING THE FORECASTING ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MARKETS AND POLLS FOR TAIWAN’S PRESIDENTIAL AND MAYORAL ELECTIONS pp. 1-26

Chen-yan Tung, Tzu-Chuan Chou, Jih-wen Lin and Hsin-Yi Lin

INTERPRETING POLITICAL PREDICTION MARKET PRICES AS PROBABILITIES: A STUDY OF A 2008 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MARKET pp. 27-41

John Kros, Enping Mai and Christopher Keller

HOW PREDICTION MARKETS HELP US UNDERSTAND EVENTS` IMPACT ON THE VOTE IN US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS pp. 42-63

Sveinung Arnesen

DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS pp. 64-74

Leighton Vaughan Williams, Blake Saville and Herman Stekler

Volume 5, issue 2, 2011

PREDICTION MARKETS AND CONTRACT DESIGN pp. 1-13

Ole Jakob Bergfjord

SHORT-SELLING IN PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 14-31

Florian Teschner, Maximilian Coblenz and Christof Weinhardt

THE REGRESSION TOURNAMENT: A NOVEL APPROACH TO PREDICTION MODEL ASSESSMENT pp. 32-43

Adi Schnytzer and Janez Šušteršič

PREDICTIVE POWER OF INFORMATION MARKET PRICES pp. 44-74

Maria Putintseva

Volume 5, issue 1, 2011

THE EFFICIENCY OF PARI-MUTUEL BETTING IN STANDARDBRED RACING pp. 1-11

Elia Kacapyr

RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST pp. 12-25

Calvin Blackwell

DOES THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL REALLY WORK? pp. 26-30

Nissim Ben-David and Evyatar Ben-David

DO GAMBLERS CORRECTLY PRICE MOMENTUM IN NBA BETTING MARKETS? pp. 31-50

Jeremy Arkes

Volume 4, issue 3, 2010

FORECASTING ACCURACY: COMPARING PREDICTION MARKETS AND SURVEYS – AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY pp. 1-19

Robert Reig and Ramona Schoder

REAL-MONEY VS. PLAY-MONEY FORECASTING ACCURACY IN ONLINE PREDICTION MARKETS – EMPIRICAL INSIGHTS FROM IPREDICT pp. 21-58

Sebastian Deimer and Joaquin Poblete

ADAPTIVE DRIFT MODELING OF DYNAMIC COINTEGRATED TIME SERIES: APPLICATIONS IN FINANCIAL AND SPORTS GAMBLING MARKETS pp. 59-83

William Mallios

A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 85-93

Russ Ray

Volume 4, issue 2, 2010

Active Hedging Greeks of an Options Portfolio Integrating Churning and Minimization of Cost of Hedging Using Quadratic & Linear Programing pp. 1-14

Pankaj Sinha, Akshay Gupta and Hemant Mudgal

Totals Markets as Evidence Against Widespread Point Shaving pp. 15-22

Richard Borghesi, Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach

Pari-Mutuel Information Aggregation Mechanisms with Public Knowledge pp. 23-43

Jared Bullen and Jordi Mckenzie

Consistency in the US Congressional Popular Opinion Polls and Prediction Markets pp. 45-64

Elliot Tonkes and Dharma Lesmono

Volume 4, issue 1, 2010

Forecasting the Dow Jones Rate of Change by Using Vector Auto-Regression pp. 1-5

Nissim Ben David

A Statistical Arbitrage Trade Based on Betting Price Volatility pp. 7-15

Alasdair Brown

Hedging Greeks for a Portfolio of Options Using Linear and Quadratic Programming pp. 17-26

Pankaj Sinha and Archit Johar

Prediction Markets: Issues and Applications pp. 27-58

Caitlin Hall

Evidence on the Favorite-Longshot Bias as a Supply-Side Phenomenon pp. 59-77

Matti Metsola

Volume 3, issue 3, 2009

The Effect of Contract Structure on Prediction Market Price Biases pp. 1-12

Richard Borghesi

Point Shaving in the NFL Gambling Market: A Bootstrap Investigation pp. 13-31

George Diemer

Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox pp. 33-44

Katarína Kálovcová and Andreas Ortmann

The Cleverness of Crowds pp. 45-47

Leighton Vaughan Williams and Julie Vaughan William

Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Corporate Prediction Markets - A Case Study in the Austrian Mobile Communication Industry pp. 49-62

Martin Waitz and Andreas Mild

Volume 3, issue 2, 2009

Influences on the Trust in Prediction Markets pp. 1-20

Thomas Seeman, Albrecht Enders Enders and Harald Hungenberg

Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior pp. 21-37

Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach

Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective pp. 39-64

Gerrit Kamp and Peter Koen

An Examination of Prediction Market Efficiency: NBA Contracts on Tradesports pp. 65-77

Richard Borghesi

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services pp. 78-106

David Rajakovich and Vladimir Vladimirov

Volume 3, issue 1, 2009

The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO pp. 1-11

Jim Lavoie

The Challenge of Incentive Alignment in the Application of Information Markets Within an Organization pp. 13-16

Art Hall

Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets pp. 17-39

Brian Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy

The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist's Perspective pp. 41-44

Marco Ottaviani

Hanson's Automated Market Maker pp. 45-59

Henry Berg and Todd Proebsting

On Market Maker Functions pp. 61-63

Robin Hanson

Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience pp. 65-85

Adam Siegel

The Emergence of Prediction Markets within Business Firms: A Skeptical Perspective from an Intrigued Academic pp. 87-88

Paul Rhode

Private Prediction Markets and the Law pp. 89-110

Tom Bell

Comment on Bell Article pp. 111-112

Robert Litan

Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets

Koleman Strumpf

Volume 2, issue 3, 2008

Forgone Interest and Contract Mispricing in Predictive Markets pp. 1-13

Charles de los Reyes and Lawrence Raifman

Exploiting Inefficiencies in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Exploratory Drift Modeling pp. 15-32

William Mallios

The Effect of Stock Endowments on the Liquidity of Prediction Markets pp. 33-46

Thomas Seemann and Harald Hungenberg

Hierarchical Bayes Prediction for the 2008 US Presidential Election pp. 47-59

Pankaj Sinha and Ashok Bansal

Shorting the Bear: A Test of Anecdotal Evidence of Insider Trading in Early Stages of the Sub-Prime Market Crisis pp. 61-69

Les Coleman and Adi Schnytzer

Volume 2, issue 2, 2008

Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk pp. 1-12

Bergfjord O.

The Relative Importance of Strength and Weight in Processing New Information in the College Football Betting Market pp. 13-28

Greg Durham and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan

Bookmaker and Pari-Mutuel Betting: Is a (Reverse) Favourite-Longshot Bias Built-In? pp. 29-50

Alexander Koch and Hui-Fai Shing

Event Studies in Real- and Play-Money Prediction Markets pp. 53-70

Christian Slamka, Arina Soukhoroukova and Martin Spann

Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence pp. 71-91

Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt

Volume 2, issue 1, 2008

The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market pp. 1-27

Greg Durham and Tod Perry

Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets pp. 29-43

Thomas Gruca, Joyce Berg and Michael Cipriano

The Tradesports NFL Prediction Market: An Analysis of Market Efficiency, Transaction Costs, and Bettor Preferences pp. 45-71

Philip O'Connor and Feng Zhou

Overconfidence in Judgements: the Evidence, the Implications and the Limitations pp. 73-90

Shih-Wei Wu, Johnnie Johnson and Ming-Chien Sung

Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections pp. 91-97

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