Point Shaving in the NFL Gambling Market: A Bootstrap Investigation

George Diemer ()

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2009, vol. 3, issue 3, 13-31

Abstract: Recent research has examined a statistical phenomenon sometimes associated with point shaving in the NCAA Basketball gambling market. In a similar fashion, this study examines the NFL gambling market based on 3,641 games over the years 1993-2007. This research uses a new approach: a bootstrap hypothesis test of equality in the game outcome distributions for large favorites vs. small favorites. Probability density functions of large favorites vs. small favorites are constructed and compared. The results are consistent with studies that suggest point shaving exists, and they counter recent claims that the statistical phenomenon are of a more innocent nature. This research leads to the rejection of the null of no point shaving in the NFL point spread gambling market.

Date: 2009
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