Journal of Prediction Markets

2007 - 2015

Current editor(s): Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School

From University of Buckingham Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dominic Cortis, University of Malta ().

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Private Information, Overconfidence and Trader Returns in Prediction Markets pp. 1-21: Sheila Goins, Michael Cipriano and Thomas S Gruca
Testing of Long Memory in Indian Stock Market using ARFIMA model pp. 23-39: Naliniprava Tripathy
A simple decision market model pp. 41-63: Daniel Grainger, Sizhong Sun, Felecia Felecia Watkin-Lui and Peter Case

A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts pp. 1-31: Deepak Pathak, David Rotschild and Miroslav Dudik
Informed Traders and Balanced Books pp. 32-42: Richard Borghesi

EXPECTED VALUES AND VARIANCES IN BOOKMAKER PAYOUTS: A THEORETICAL APPROACH TOWARDS SETTING LIMITS ON ODDS pp. 1-14: Dominic Cortis
Lost Decade, Market Efficiency and Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Greece pp. 15-32: Massoud Metghalchi
Examining the forecasting performance of a modified affine model with macroeconomic and latent factors pp. 33-52: Anastasios Evgenidis and Costas Siriopoulos
Using Prediction Market Prices to Differentiate Factors that Influence the Highest and Lowest Priced Tickets in Dynamic Pricing for Major League Baseball pp. 43-63: Rodney Paul
Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets pp. 53-67: Justin Davis, Andy Fodor, Luke McElfresh and Kevin Kreiger
Forecasting the decisions of the US Supreme Court: lessons from the ‘affordable care act’ judgment pp. 64-78: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Determination of Odds in Prediction Markets: Coexistence of Posted-offer and Double-auction Designs pp. 68-86: Levent Celik and Esen Onur

An Empirical Analysis of Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Indian Listed Companies pp. 1-23: Vandana Gupta
Prediction markets vs polls – an examination of accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 elections pp. 24-33: Sveinung Arnesen and Ole Bergfjord
The power of priors: How confirmation bias impacts market prices pp. 34-56: Michael Cipriano and Thomas S Gruca
Bettor Habits When Point Spreads and Money lines are Offered on the Same Game: The NFL pp. 57-74: Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach and Mark Wilson

A Behaviorally Informed Survey-Powered Market Agent pp. 1-28: Jessica Inchauspe, Pavel Atanasov, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and Lyle Ungar
The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football pp. 29-42: Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach and Kenneth Small
Testing for Dependency, Autocorrelation and Weak Information Efficiency in Horse Race Rankings Time Series pp. 43-75: Mikael Linden
Ideas Markets: A Literature Review and Classification Scheme pp. 76-88: Eoin McDonagh and Patrick Buckley
Ideas Markets: Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014 pp. 89-126: Christian Franz Horn, Bjoern Sven Ivens, Michael Ohneberg and Alexander Brem

A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES pp. 1-26: Nissim Ben-David, Evyatar Ben-David and Zvi Winer
EMERGENT CAPITAL MARKETS’ EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF POLAND pp. 27-41: Massoud Metghalchi, Adriano Pinho and Adriana Sarmento
INFORMATION AND PREDICTABILITY: BOOKMAKERS, PREDICTION MARKETS AND TIPSTERS AS FORECASTERS pp. 43-76: J Reade
FORENSIC SPORTS ANALYTICS: DETECTING AND PREDICTING MATCH-FIXING IN TENNIS pp. 77-95: Ryan Rodenberg and Elihu Feustel

WANNA BET THERE WILL BE WAR? A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION MARKETS DURING THE LIBYA CONFLICT 2011 pp. 1-28: Sebastian Matthias Woerle
MULTIVARIATE METHODS IN ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MARKETS EX ANTE BASED ON OHE HIGHEST-PRICE CRITERION pp. 29-44: Hung-Wen Lin, Chen-yuan Tung and Jason Yeh
MANAGING RISK USING PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 45-60: Gautam Kumar Varma
LIQUIDITY PROVISION AND CROSS ARBITRAGE IN CONTINUOUS DOUBLE-AUCTION PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 61-86: Werner Antweiler

EARLY SEASON NBA OVER/UNDER BIAS pp. 1-9: Clay Girdner, Justin Davis, Andy Fodor and David Kirch
MARKET EFFICIENCY AND PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL TRADING RULES: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM pp. 11-27: Massoud Metghalchi
THE “LARGE-FIRM” EFFECT? BETTOR PREFERENCES AND MARKET PRICES IN NCAA FOOTBALL pp. 29-41: Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach and Eric Higger
EMPLOYEE DISCIPLINE AND BASKETBALL REFEREES: A PREDICTION MARKET APPROACH pp. 43-54: Ryan Rodenberg
ANALYZING INFORMATION EFFICIENCY IN THE BETTING MARKET FOR ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL LEAGUE WINNERS pp. 55-70: Lars Magnus Hvattum

CAN PREDICTION MARKETS MITIGATE PRICE BIASES? pp. 1-12: Richard Borghesi
THE POWER OF WAGERING ON POWER CONFERENCES pp. 13-26: Kevin Krieger, Clay Girdner, Andy Fodor and David Kirch
ANALYSIS OF THE DISPOSITION EFFECT: ASYMMETRY AND PREDICTION ACCURACY pp. 27-42: Florian Teschner
PREDICTING HORSE RACE WINNERS THROUGH A REGULARIZED CONDITIONAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION WITH FRAILTY pp. 43-52: Noah Silverman and Marc Suchard
UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOME AND TELEVISION RATINGS FOR THE NHL AND MLS pp. 53-65: Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach

A HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF HORSE RACING pp. 1-13: Noah Silverman
ARBITRAGE TRADE IN PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 14-26: Ole Bergfjord, Petter Kildal, Thomas McPherson, Lars Loftaas and Kristoffer Valvik
SIMPLIFYING MARKET ACCESS: A NEW CONFIDENCE-BASED INTERFACE pp. 27-41: Florian Teschner and David Rothschild
LONG-TERM PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 43-61: Werner Antweiler

INFORMATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN NFL POINT SPREAD AND MONEYLINE MARKETS pp. 1-11: Andy Fodor, Kevin Krieger, David Kirch and Andrew Kreutzer
THE IMPLICATIONS OF A REVERSE FAVOURITE-LONGSHOT BIAS IN A PREDICTION MARKET pp. 12-21: Richard Borghesi
PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY: THE IMPACT OF SIZE, INCENTIVES, CONTEXT AND INTERPRETATION pp. 22-46: Patrick Mchugh and Aaron Jackson
INCENTIVES IN PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 47-58: Leonard Wolk and Ronald Peeters
ANIMAL MODELING OF EARTHQUAKES AND PREDICTION MARKETS pp. 59-76: Adi Schnytzer and Yisrael Schnytzer
PREDICTION FOR THE 2012 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL pp. 77-97: Pankaj Sinha, Aastha Sharma and Harsh Vardhan Singh

DYNAMIC MODELING FORECASTS OF EQUITY PRICE MOVEMENTS IN CASES OF INSIDER TRADING pp. 1-30: William Mallios
BUSINESS CYCLE AND OPTIMAL TIMING FOR INVESTMENT pp. 31-41: Joseph Cheng and Jeffery Lippitt
WAGERING PREFERENCES OF NFL BETTORS: DETERMINANTS OF BETTING VOLUME pp. 42-55: Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach
EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVENESS AND PROFITABILITY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTING MODELS pp. 56-75: Daniel Santamaria