A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Nissim Ben-David, Evyatar Ben-David and Zvi Winer
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Nissim Ben David

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2014, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-26

Abstract: We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group. Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of change is reduced in countries with low or medium survival rate of infants. Conversely, it increased for those with a high survival rate of infants. If the survival rate of infants converges to 1, the fertility rate of change converges to zero, moving the country to steady size of population at age 1.

Keywords: population distribution; fertility; survival rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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